The ugly side of spring caused numerous tornadoes the past few days and more severe weather will continue today across parts of the southeastern portion of the United States. Tornadoes occur worldwide, but the United States leads the pack with over a thousand a year. Other countries like Canada, Bangladesh, Germany, South African and France also see tornado activity each year.
Here in New England we are fortunate to not have much in the way of severe weather and while certainly not life threatening, spring can be frustrating. For the past several days we have seen how the pattern can bring cool air, an abundance of clouds and showers to the region.
I’ll be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom.
Each spring is different. Some years it’s warm while other years are raw and chilly. The daily averages in the weather books are meaningless most of the time, but particularly in spring when it can be in the 40s or near 80. If you dressed for average weather you would be under or over dressed more times than not.
The weather this week isn’t out of the ordinary; it’s just what the weather does.
Clouds continue to rotate westward from the ocean. You might have noticed some drizzle or even a brief shower earlier. There won’t be much if any rainfall today, just cool air. Highs this afternoon will stay in the 40s. The mildest places in New England will be interior areas of Northern New England where there is more sunshine and the ocean influence isn’t as great. As drier air tries to move in from the north today we might have a few hours of nice weather towards the evening. I’d give it a 50/50 shot.
A steady rain returns to the forecast during Wednesday and the first few hours of Thursday. While it won’t rain 100% of the time tomorrow, it’s the type of day when showers could occur most anytime.
I am expecting on average about an inch of rain from this upcoming system, with some areas seeing twice that amount. On Thursday morning between about 2AM and 8AM an area of downpours will cause some street flooding and bring the bulk of the total rainfall. The exact configuration of the rain area and the amount of embedded thunderstorms will determine if some areas end up surpassing 2 inches of rainfall.
Temperatures will be noticeably milder Thursday after several days of cool and raw conditions. Some areas south of Boston may nudge 70F for a time Thursday with the feeling of humidity in the air.
Much of Thursday will likely just be cloudy and mild after the rain ends. There could even be a few breaks of sunshine. Temperatures will continue to be in the 60s for Friday with a mix of clouds and blue sky. It will be nice on Saturday, but there is the risk of some clouds and a shower later Sunday with slightly cooler readings.
The long term outlook for the first couple of weeks of May keeps the region cooler than average. Remember, this doesn’t mean we won’t see a warm day or even several during this period. It just appears the first 14 days of May will average cooler than the numbers would predict. The series of maps below shows 4 different variations of a computer model predicting temperature the first week of May. The greens and blues indicate cooler conditions.