Saturday Nor’easter on the Way

It looks like Saturday is going to be a messy storm with a degree or two change in temperature and your exact location making the difference between a few inches of snow and more of a major snowstorm. More details below from this morning. Update to the amounts later this afternoon.

Earlier Blog Entry

When there is a storm in the forecast the first thing I do when I get up is quickly look at the overnight run of the models. I know some forecasters who stay up until 2AM waiting for them, but my sleep is way too important for that.

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One component of the forecast that changed overnight was with temperatures, they are slightly warmer. This means that if the trend continued, even a degree or two, the snowfall predictions will need to be lowered. I’ll re-evaluate this after the afternoon data.

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Trend forecasting is something I am very fond of and it makes me a bit nervous to see the models warming up. One of the older models, we used several years ago, shows mainly a rainstorm for Boston. I don’t think that will happen, but it’s something to watch and not impossible.

24 hours before the precipitation begins I like to think I am 80-90% confident in the forecast. The storm after all is only day away. This morning, I am feeling closer to 70% confident in the forecast, still good odds, but there’s a larger part of me than usual wondering about the eventual outcome.

I’ll be on Twitter @growingwisdom updating the forecast as well as this blog as conditions change.

That said it’s my job to give you the maps, which is really what most people want anyway. What you’ll find below are three maps showing snowfall projected totals. The numbers include the snow that falls before any change to rain or mixed rain and snow as well as any snow that falls after a change back.

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The timing has moved up a bit, so I expect precipitation to have already started or begin around sunrise. Those of you on the North Shore will see the precipitation start last. This also means the storm will exit early ending between 7 and 10PM southwest to northeast.

Snow is most likely the entire storm over Worcester County, Middlesex County (north of the Massachusetts Turnpike) and western Essex County . South and east of there a mix or plain rain will cut accumulations significantly.

Ranges of snow are given for several areas. If you live in the southern area of a range you will likely see the lower end and if you live north in a range you’ll likely see the higher end.

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Notice temperatures tomorrow evening around 7PM are forecast by one model to be just above freezing. This means the snow is wet and heavy and could create some power issues where accumulations are the greatest.

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Sunday brings a return to sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Another storm will likely miss us Monday, but pull in a lot of cold air for the middle of the week. The track obviously could change, but that’s the how it appears right now.

Highs on Tuesday only reach the teens to near 20F for one of the colder days we’ve seen this winter. The deep cold relaxes as we head into the weekend.

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