Super stretch about to be interrupted by showers and storms

There are lots of superlatives to use for the weather the past several days. Since late last week conditions have been nearly ideal. We all know this stretch had to come to an end, but need rain so it’s a good thing.

Today is a hazy, hot and humid day. Highs will be well into the 80s. I don’t believe Boston will reach 90F, but it will feel that warm with the moisture in the air. There is a front to our north and west right now which will slowly be sagging south. While the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity isn’t going to reach southern New England today, the atmosphere will have enough instability to allow a few storms to pop up around the Route 2 area this afternoon.


If there are any showers today they could contain some heavy downpours and thunder, but I want to stress nearly all of us are going to remain rain free.
I’ll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter.

Dew points, a measure of the amount of moisture in the air have been running very low the past 5 days. Now, they have crept back into the 60s. This means you can feel the moisture in the air. Remember, there is always moisture in the air even at 10 below zero, there’s just not enough for us to feel it.
Since there is so much moisture in the air, eventually, when we do get showers, they could cause some street flooding and localized driving issues for a time.
Overnight this rain area is going to creep south and east. If you draw a line from southern New Hampshire through Worcester and into Connecticut areas west of that line have the greatest opportunity for heavy rain overnight.
The image below shows where the showers are forecast, according to one model, around 2 AM. This is just one model, but the idea of the heaviest showers to the north is definitely what’s going to happen.

southern New England 2 am.png

Tomorrow, the focus for the rain shifts eastward. One of the things that could happen is metrowest and the north shore miss the heaviest rain because the best forcing mechanisms, (lift to make the storms) will come through at the coolest part of the day. As the day warms tomorrow, more storms will pop-up over the south shore, and Cape Cod

6 am.png

Notice the gap in the precipitation tomorrow morning between lines of showers. There is plenty going on to the north and south of Boston, but not so much in-between. This projected radar is but a moment in time and since the showers are moving all of us will see some rain, but some of you could miss out on the most beneficial showers.
Late in the afternoon Thursday the risk of showers will have gone down enough to remove them from the forecast. The Billy Joel concert tomorrow evening at Fenway should be good to go and the humidity will be moderate.
Another concert Friday and Saturday at Fenway, plus scores of other events around the region should take place without the worry of showers. It won’t be cloud free Friday and Saturday. The cool air over us will act as a catalyst for puffy cumulus clouds. I suppose there could be a quick shower over inland areas, but in general you’ll notice the dry and warm conditions and not the showers.
Next week is going to turn very warm to hot with more humidity. This is going to be the first really significant stretch of summertime weather when we have several days in a row close to 90F with high humidity. Welcome to July.

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