Tropical storm Arthur to likely impact July 4th

It’s hot and it’s humid and it’s July. Today’s weather is quite typical of what this month brings. Of course the start of July is also the July 4th weekend and many of you look forward to this holiday all year.

This year we have tropical storm Arthur moving up the coastline the next few days and this is certainly going to be a factor in our weather. There are still a lot of questions to be answered about the storm and its impact here. I am confident in another hot and humid day tomorrow and the weather becoming increasingly more unsettled Thursday into parts of Friday. Here are some other questions you might have and my answers right now. This is of course subject to change.

Will Arthur hit New England?
It is highly unlikely Arthur is going to directly hit anywhere in New England. The most likely scenario is the storm stays off our coastline and barely brushes the region. The outer banks of North Carolina could see a direct hit.

arthur tropical storm.gif

When are showers going to come back into the forecast?
There is a very small risk of a pop-up storm Wednesday over inland areas. However, the chance of showers and storms really doesn’t increase until Thursday afternoon and night.
Is Arthur bringing us rain and wind?
Although Arthur is going to pass safely out to sea, there is a cold front to our west which will help pull some of the moisture out of Arthur and move it northward into the area. The interaction of the cold front from the west and the storm are critical. If the upper winds and frontal boundary don’t capture any moisture we will just have a period of showers Thursday night. Most of the tropical storm force winds should remain over the ocean. Even if the Cape and Islands see tropical storm force winds they will be minimal and not stronger than a nor’easter.
When does the rain end?
The computer models take Arthur east of us on Friday. Very often these storms move faster than the models predict. Right now it’s likely we see downpours Friday morning and even into the early afternoon. However, there is the chance we clear later in the afternoon or evening. Of course, I can’t predict what each city and town will do with the July 4th festivities. Morning parades will likely occur, if they are not cancelled, with tropical showers.
Could this speed up or slow down?
The timing of the rain for Thursday night and Friday is most certainly going to change a bit. I could see the rain shifting earlier or later by 4 or 5 hours. If everything moves later then the July 4th evening will be a washout, earlier and we have a nicer day.
In the winter storms sometimes go out to sea, could this go further east?
The computer models agree on keeping Arthur off the coast, but there is the chance the storm stays further east, this would lower the amount of rain.
I have a boat in the harbor should I remove it?
Right now, unless something changes drastically, the biggest issue from Arthur will be rain and some rough seas. Unless your marina can’t handle some rough weather, I would say leave everything in place.
When will you know better what is happening for the weekend?
Every 12 hours we get a major update of information. I’ll have an even better idea of the forecast later this afternoon and then again in the early morning hours of Wednesday.
What about the actual weekend?
July 5th and 6th look like great weather with low humidity and mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70s, a welcome break from this heat.
When is your next update?
I will do another blog entry Wednesday and update this one if things change dramatically. You can find more updates on Twitter @growingwisdom

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