3PM Blog Update
As of now I am watching a line of storms over southern Vermont and Western Massachusetts developing and moving east. This line hasn’t seen severe weather yet, but there have been warnings in Maine and Connecticut this afternoon for other thunderstorm complexes.
The map below shows where the severe thunderstorm watch is (pink areas) and also below that is the radar as of mid-afternoon. I’ll be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom so please follow me there for updates. Thanks and keep an eye to the sky this evening.
Morning Blog Post Below
Very warm and humid air continues to reside across New England this morning and will continue into the afternoon. At the same time, a cold front is marching eastward. This front marks the divide between the summer-like air over the region now and the cooler and more fall-like air which will be with us starting tomorrow.
These two clashing air masses will raise the chances of showers and storms to likely this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could contain very heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds and hail. While these storms can reach severe category, tornadoes are not likely. That said, there is always a chance of a small, but brief twister in these situations.
There is a lot of atmospheric energy poised to be used by these storms this afternoon and evening. The biggest issue appears to be the potential for flooded roads. Think about how humid it’s felt the past 24 hours and imagine all this moisture condensing into trillions upon trillion of raindrops. The shear amount of water that can fall in a very brief time this afternoon is noteworthy.
The slow movement of some of the storms makes this possibility of flash flooding worth mentioning. While the atmosphere is ripe for showers and storms, like all of these types of situations, the amount of rain and severity of each individual thunderstorm cell will vary wildly across small distances.
The maps below (from Weatherbell Analytics) give you an idea of where the line of storms will be during the afternoon and early evening. Notice we really don’t start seeing an impact to the central and eastern areas until after 2PM, but western New England may see some activity prior to that time.
The latest HRRR model shows some storms developing ahead of the main line. (notice the first image above) This often happens in these situations. A pre-frontal trough brings a line of storms prior to the actual frontal system.
The Red Sox game is looking like it is in jeopardy of starting late. I’ll have more on the timing of the storms on Twitter @growingwisdom.
Once the system passes off the coast the air will dry and it will turn noticeably cooler by morning. Tomorrow’s temperatures will not only be significantly cooler remaining in the 68-76 degree range from north to south, but the air will contain exponentially less moisture.
Monday morning dawns dry and cool with some areas into the 40s and afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Much of next week appears to be dry with Thursday the only day of some potential showers. This isn’t a sure bet however.
Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky.