A warm and somewhat humid day is on tap for today. A southerly flow of air means a brief return to the feeling of summer. Highs today will reach well into the 70s. A few spots if there is enough sun could touch 80 degrees this afternoon.
AS I write this, there is a line of showers to our west associated with a strong cold front. Behind this front temperatures are below average for mid-September. There are frost and freeze advisories and warnings for parts of the upper Midwest, an indication of the extent of the cold air. I expect a piece of this chilly fall air to arrive here over the weekend bringing a mostly bright but cool weekend.
Before we get to the cool air, that line of showers will need to pass through the region. This will occur around the evening commute. While some of you might see heavier downpours, the rain looks to be scattered in nature, and unfortunately for those of you in drought conditions we aren’t going to see much in the way of rain.
The chart below is from the American Model (GFS) and shows the weather forecast pictorially for the next week. Notice temperatures are somewhat cool after today and there isn’t much rain in the forecast.
The models don’t do well with the amount of rain from showers and thunderstorms as some areas will see more than is predicted and others significantly less. I would be thrilled if we get a quarter- to half-inch of rain in metro west, but I am not going to expect it.
Behind the front, cooler and drier brings a touch of fall. The forecast for Saturday has been changing from day to day because of a weather system expected to be off our coastline. It appears this system will stay far enough off the coast to keep any rain over the ocean and even keep clouds at a minimum.
The map below indicates the chance of measurable rain for Saturday. Notice the numbers are very low with a 70- to 80-percent chance nothing will happen. So although you might hear of a shower possibility in the forecast, it’s quite small.
I’ll be updating the rain probability here and on Twitter @growingwisdom
Cool nights will also be with us this weekend for wonderful sleeping weather and crisp mornings. Speaking of crisp, apples are coming on strong and this is a great weekend to visit your favorite local farm. These farms depend on us for sustaining them, and many only have a few weeks during the year to make enough money to survive. The memories of apple, peach or pear picking will stay with you or your kids forever. Have a great day.