This morning while walking the dogs, I noticed how dark it stayed so close to sunrise. With virtually clear skies the past week, it’s been getting lighter well before sunrise, not today however. Thick clouds, especially lower ones, block out a lot of light. Combine this with the lowering maximum angle of the sun and its weakening strength and you have gloomy mornings.
Temperatures are only in the 50s in most areas this afternoon making it one of the coolest days we have seen since last spring. Around the evening commute home, roads will still be wet and there could be rain falling especially in eastern Massachusetts and metro Boston. If you are going to need to walk around outside this evening, take an umbrella. Map is for 5PM.
This pattern is going to be apparent again tomorrow as a persistent wind off the water keeps clouds and damp conditions going through mid-week. While we might see a few showers or some drizzle during this time, measureable rainfall will be limited and we are poised to exit September as one of the driest in 6 decades. If you are thinking it hasn’t rained in a while you are correct. Unless you are on Cape Cod or the Islands where there was some beneficial rain late last week.
Friday is looking a bit better with more in the way of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. After a few days of cloudy and rather dank weather, the sun will be a welcome change.
Saturday is going to prove to be a forecasting challenge. Many of the models have a good chance of showers or even a steady rain. I am not yet convinced of this scenario. You’ve perhaps heard or read the saying drought begets drought. When an area is in a drought situation it becomes harder to break the pattern.
The cool damp weather this week, while helping to stem the depth of the drought, will not bust it. Since some areas are close to half a foot below average rainfall, we need several rain events or a few days of a gentle rain to start putting a dent in the dry weather.
The map below is an accumulated precipitation forecast from the latest American model, the GFS. The map is a prediction of how much rain may fall through Saturday evening. Notice most of southern New England is forecast to see half an inch to an inch of rain. I’ll update the forecast on Twitter throughout the week for the weekend. Please follow me @growingwisdom.
Sunday will be the best day of the weekend and even if we do see some rain Saturday, I expect abundant sunshine for Sunday with pleasant temperature readings. The pattern we are in now is much cooler than over the weekend and while we could nudge 70F this weekend, I don’t see any exceedingly warm weather to start October.