Better Weather Sunday, Foliage Report, Upcoming Warmth and Rain

It’s not quite as cold as Thanksgiving, but with the highs only in the lower to middle 50s today, it feel more like a day in November than the first half of October. Chilly October weather can be quite a downer because if, and it’s a big if, it lasts into November it makes for a very long winter.

Today is one of those days where the temperature inside the house can actually fall during the day. The lack of any solar heating in combination with outdoor readings in the lower and middle 50s can keep our homes chilly enough to need the heat. I have a rule that if the temperature stays under 60F for more than about an hour I’m putting on the heat. I use to try to make it to November 1st, but the older I got I gave up on that rule.

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The rain shield has moved north to the New Hampshire border today, further north and even west. I expect areas around Boston to see around a quarter inch of rain, but even along the Route 2 area there will be steady rain for a few hours mostly prior to noon. The storm responsible for our rain shifted north only a bit, but it’s enough to make a difference north of the Massachusetts turnpike.

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Sunday is a completely different kind of day weather-wise. I expect plenty of sunshine and although it won’t be remarkably warmer it will feel much better. If you are running the BAA half marathon it will be in the 40s early in the morning and end around 60F by 1 or 2 PM. I think for running and spectating this is really an ideal forecast.

Foliage Report
Foliage continues to come on strong. The two maps below from the Foliage Network tell the story of where the foliage is best right now. As I have often written, waiting until “peak” foliage can mean you have missed some of the most vibrant colors of the early turning trees. I think this weekend color is strong from the suburbs of Boston into all of northern New England.

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We are still awaiting a hard frost or freeze in many areas from coastal Maine south to much of southern New England. While there has been a light frost at my house my basil is still growing, so it hasn’t been that cold. The charts below give an idea when the first frost and hard freeze usually occurs. You can use the percentage and the dates together to determine the chances a particular temperature will occur by a certain date.

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Next Week Potential Issues and Warmth
Columbus Day will see a blend of clouds and sunshine with just a chance of showers during the second part of the afternoon. Temperatures will be mild reaching the 60s. This is just a preview of 70+ degree weather coming for Tuesday and Wednesday. If we got enough sun, 80F is not out of the question and that’s quite warm for the middle of October.

Later in the week a storm system may bring heavy rain, thunder and wind. The timing of this system would be in the Thursday/Friday time period and would be over by next weekend.

Pacific Typhoon
Finally typhoon Vongfong is impacting Okinawa in Japan and the eye may cross the island later today our time. That part of the world is very accustomed to these types of storms so while certainly dangerous they are well prepared. The image below shows how the storm looked on radar this morning.

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Have a great weekend.

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