Weather

Unseasonably Warm Air Continues, But Cooler Air Is Coming

What a great evening it was with the mild air and the crickets chirping all night long. I consider it a bonus when I don’t have a need for the heat in the middle of October and I can keep the windows open as well. Today brings another mild day with no chance of rain. There will be a lot of clouds, but also some periods of sunshine. The air contains more moisture today, so the clouds should be a bit more widespread than we saw yesterday. Like Tuesday, it will take a few hours to get rid of the low overcast along the coast where it’s thickest.

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Highs today are easily going into the 70s and 80F isn’t out of the question if we get enough sunshine. A cold front is marking time well to the west of New England and until it gets closer we won’t have any shower activity. This will occur tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Showers won’t be an issue over eastern New England tomorrow morning, but will begin out towards the Berkshires early in the day. These showers will then slowly progress eastwards likely reaching Boston around the evening commute. This doesn’t mean there can’t be a shower before then, but the steadiest and heaviest rain holds off until late in the day in the Boston area.

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Unfortunately for the New England Patriots and more so the fans, it’s going to be a wet game tomorrow. There will be elements of heavy rain and perhaps some thunder as well. I am expecting a widespread 1 to 2 inch rain event. This will likely be the biggest rainfall we have seen over such a wide area since August 13th. Of course the Cape has seen a lot of rain in the past couple of weeks, but many of us northwest of that area are still very dry.

Hurricane Gonazalo continues to churn south of Bermuda. While this storm is never going to impact the east coast directly, some of the moisture will perhaps be sucked into the upper flow and brought to New England during our rain even tomorrow. If you look at the computer forecast below of the GFS model. (image is from Weatherbell Analytics), it shows the hurricane 700 miles away from Boston, but the rain connection to the cold front is evident. These types of situations often happen when the jet stream is able to capture parts of a weather system well south or east of the area. It will be interesting to see exactly how much tropical moisture becomes embedded within this entire system tomorrow night.

gfs tropical gonzalo connection.png

I update my forecasts and take weather and horticultural questions on Twitter @growingwisdom

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Friday brings clearing and a continuation of the warm conditions. It won’t be muggy, but it will be near 70F. Saturday is bright and sunny with a chance of a pop-up summer-like shower or storm in the afternoon. It continues unseasonably warm around 70F in the afternoon.

Much colder air arrives Sunday with temperatures staying in the 50s most of the day. Frost could be an issue for many of us by Monday morning or Tuesday morning as cold air settles in from Canada.

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