In my college meteorology class I teach, today we started the lesson on computer models. I began with an example of the model limitations and with how the models just can’t “see” all aspects of any weather event. While I didn’t think it would rain much, if at all yesterday I was certainly surprised by the abundance of sunshine in the afternoon. While we have still not had much rain, it is coming, I promise.
If this was a winter nor’easter people would be becoming very skeptical a storm was on the way. We would have had only an inch or two of snow, but the forecasts would still be saying the big 12 to 24 inch amounts are coming. Sometimes these slow moving nor’easters take a bit longer to arrive than forecast, but I am confident in a lot of rain overnight.
This evening we find ourselves on the edge of heavy rain and wind both of which will create some issues. This isn’t a monster fall storm, but nevertheless will bring a period of very heavy rain and gusty winds.
There is a coastal flood advisory in place because the strong winds could bring some beach erosion and minor splash over of sea water to parts of the coast. As is typical in these situations the most vulnerable of shore roads would see the ocean water cover them during high tide. Tides are astronomically low and therefore I am not expecting, nor is the Weather Service Predicting any significant problems along the coast.
There are also wind advisories and flood watches posted for parts of the area.
Since winds will be gusty, it’s not impossible some of you lose your power. The power went out at my house earlier today and while I have no idea why, (it could have been a downed tree) I do know it did affect a significant area around my home.
Rainfall will average 1 to 3 inches with the highest amounts over eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. Maine will see even more rain than this with some areas possibly seeing 4 to 5 inches of water. The map below shows rainfall projections through 4AM Thursday, but the storm won’t be over yet
The ground is still quite dry and can hold a lot of water, but with the trees no longer using the water it won’t take quite as long for some small creeks and streams to flood. Street flooding is the biggest concern because with wet leaves and heavy rain big puddles can develop quickly.
The radar already shows very heavy rain moving up over Cape Cod and this will progress northward for the evening commute. I expect if you are traveling this evening it will take much longer than normal.
The rain continues heavy overnight and tapers off during Thursday morning. The morning commute could still be impact as there will be heavy showers around.
The weather slowly improves Friday, but really we must wait until the weekend for a return to sunshine and milder air. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking fantastic with lots of sun and highs near 60F.