Wind, Rain, Coastal Flooding and Even Snow In The Forecast

Its a busy evening trying to figure out the weather the next 16 hours. Let me give you the bottom line on this storm for southern New England first. Some of you are going to lose power, but for most of us this is a windy rain storm that is over during Sunday. There won’t be a lot of rain, but the wind is what you will remember. This could also be the first time we see snow this season. All that said, this is a big storm and fun to forecast so let’s get to the details.

While most of you reading this are in southern New England, it’s worth starting with talking about a major early November snowstorm for eastern areas from about Bangor eastward. The map below shows where a Winter Storm Warning is in place. These areas are the most likely to see the heavy snow.

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South and west of this area there remains in place a Winter Storm Watch. The reason the watch is still up is because the track and intensity of the storm later tonight could wobble enough to bring heavy snow even into the greater Portland, Lewiston and Augusta areas. Obviously, the further north and east folks are the greater the chance for snow. The map of accumulating snow is from the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. Notice some areas can expect over a foot of snow. This is early, even for northern Maine.

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Big Picture
The weather picture has one low pressure area passing by tonight. At the same time a second area or storm will merge with the first and form a very large storm over eastern Canada Sunday morning. This storm will be large and intense and bring with it a lot of wind.

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There is cold air above us this evening with the mild air in just lower part of the atmosphere close to the ground. As the precipitation comes down harder late at night and during Sunday morning it will pull the cold air into the system. This is a very dynamic situation and one which needs to be monitored extremely closely hour-by-hour for any changes.

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Snow In Boston?
It’s not an exaggeration that a difference of 2 degrees could mean even Boston sees some slush on the grass early Sunday morning. The image below shows the track projects of the upcoming storm. Most of the models generally agree on the track, but there are some small differences which could impact the amount of rain and whether we see some wet snow in the morning.

Below is a radar forecast through early Sunday morning. What you want to notice on the loop is two batches of precipitation with a break between. See how the first batch pushes through Maine and is green, then changes to blue? That is the rain forecast to change to snow.

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Notice in the last frame there is another batch of very heavy precipitation just south of Boston.. A difference of 50 miles in the track of this second batch is going to be critical. This is why it’s an hour to hour forecast late tonight and tomorrow morning. If this second batch does nick the area and the cold air is pulled down from above it could look quite wintry here for a few hours early tomorrow.


Wind

There are wind advisories and high wind warnings for much of the areas. The high wind warning is more significant and over coastal communities from Cape Ann to Cape Cod. Since Boston sits west as bit and is somewhat protected, it’s out of the warning and in the advisory area.

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Coastal Flooding
There are coastal flood advisories and warnings. The darker area is under a warning and will see minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding in places. The lighter green areas have an advisory and this is less severe. It means some erosion and splash over, but not a big deal.

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Skies clear for Monday with sunshine returning. It’s still breeze and chilly. Tuesday turns milder. Don’t forget to set the clock back one hour tonight as well.

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