Arctic Cold Will Be Much Modified When It Arrives In New England

On this Veterans Day we are looking at some great weather across all of New England, with the mildest air from southern and central Maine south to Bridgeport Connecticut.
Sunshine will be abundant and with light winds. It’s going to be a great day. Some of you are not working and I suggest making good use of the short amount of daylight. Try to get some leaves cleaned up and maybe put away some of your tools and things while it’s still mild.

The big story with the weather is of course the cold and snow west of here. The cold came into the Rockies a couple of days and has been moving steadily eastward ever since. In order for New England to see the core of cold air it has to enter the country closer to the Great Lakes and not far to the west.

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If a cold shot comes in across Montana the air slowly becomes less cold by the time it travels to the coast. If it enters via Ontario or Quebec there is much less time for it to moderate and we suffer with colder air.

While the chill is the lead story on many of the local and national news outlets, this isn’t the first time it’s been this cold so early and it won’t be the last. The map below shows highs this afternoon across the lower 48. Notice the enormous contrast from east to west.

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History Repeat
Back in 1911, on this very day, a very similar set-up was occurring. I found out about this arctic outbreak while doing some research for the current one. The maps are from the NOAA Louisville, KY. 103 years ago a strong cold front brought air from the North Pole southward into the Rockies and eventually south and east.

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There were many dramatic examples of tremendous temperature drops across the central portion of the United States some of which you can see below.

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An arctic front continued to press eastward through the 12th and even brought some severe weather with tornadoes ahead of it. It was the cold however that was most notable.

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By the time to arctic air arrived along the east coast it was much modified and while cold for mid-November, it wasn’t anything very dramatic or record breaking here.

I think we are going to see a similar pattern with our cool down as we had into the weekend. The cold air will arrive, but have been greatly modified during the trip eastward. There will be a few successive shots of chillier air and early next week will bring some of the coldest readings of the late fall season.

Before this happens, some rain or snow is possible late in the weekend or early next week. The evolution of a storm off the coast over the weekend will determine if we stay dry and get colder or see some precipitation and turn colder.

The map below for Monday morning shows a low pressure system off the coastline with the air just cold enough for some wet snow along parts of the coast. This is just one model and being nearly a week into the future can and will change in the coming days.

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Even Colder?
The final map I will show you is for about 10 days from now. There is forecast to be a mass of arctic air making a b-line for the northeast. If this trend continues, then we may be talking about cold air worth noting, then again, it’s a 10 day forecast, so don’t fill those skating rinks just yet.

You can follow me on Twiitter @growingwisdom

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Have a great Tuesday and thank you to all the veterans who help keep America what she is.

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