A cold weekend continues across the region, but at least there is abundant sunshine today. I’m not a fan of comparing this cold to averages, because our weather is rarely average. However, the average highs would be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and certainly we are on the very low side of the range for mid-November today. Highs this afternoon will only reach the lower 40s over Cape Cod to mid-30s across the Worcester hills.
Winds will generally be light, so if you are in the sunshine it won’t feel quite as bad.
Another very cold night for mid-November brings temperatures back to the upper teens in the coldest spots to lower 30s over the outer parts of Cape Cod. The ground will likely be frozen much of the day tomorrow even as temperatures rebound to the lower 40s. I don’t think this is the ground permanently freezing for winter yet, but you could put in the driveway stakes to be on the safe side.
Tomorrow will start with some sunshine then clouds move in for the afternoon. A southerly breeze will make the temperatures in the mid 40s feel colder. By the end of the day thicker clouds should prevent much in the way of solar heating.
A storm will move in from the Ohio Valley Sunday night and Monday. This system looks to take a track over southern New England. The exact track of the system will be critical in helping determine what type of precipitation you see late Sunday night and Monday morning.
You can follow changes to my forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom
To the right of the center of the storm, the L you see on weather maps, the air is warm enough for all rain. To the left of the center the air will be cold enough for a mix of snow, sleet or even freezing rain. The models we use to forecast are still giving a few different scenarios on the track, so it’s still a bit unsure where the rain/mix line will be located. The best chance of all rain is from Boston south and east and some mixing is likely west of Route 495.
The chart below gives a range of possible temperatures for Boston based on different tracks of the storm. The solid line represents the most likely temperatures, but there are models with extreme warmth and cold as well. These solutions are much less likely.
Where it is colder, across ski country, this storm will bring a light to moderate amount of snow. The map below is from the GFS model and shows many areas seeing 3-8 inches of snow from this storm. This certainly isn’t a major event, but will, along with snow making, help to build those early bases for Thanksgiving skiing.
Warmer Turkey Day?
The longer range models do have the eastern half of the country warming Thanksgiving week, let’s hope this is correct. At least oil prices have fallen.