Heavy AM Rain, Dry Tuesday, Stormy Wednesday

I am going to keep this brief this morning with a bigger update this afternoon after I have had a chance to digest the models during the day.

I’ll be updating on Twitter and here as I receive new data.

This entry will break down the forecast by day and highlight the specific aspects that are important for most of us.

Rain impacts the morning commute. The rain ends late this morning and therefore the evening commute will be dry. Temperatures get into the 60s so it feels like spring. Winds will be gusty, especially on Cape Cod. Enjoy the warm air.

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This is the best travel day before Thanksgiving. There will be sunshine and mild air. Highs will still be in the 50s to near 60F and although there will be a brisk breeze the air will still have that spring-like feeling to it. Traffic is going to be horrible during the afternoon as many people now leave town on Tuesday and with the likelihood of a storm for Wednesday afternoon it will be even worse.

Tuesday night
Dry weather continues through the evening. If you want to leave after dinner roads will be clear in all directions to New York City and north to Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. If I was traveling this is when I would leave. I would rather get to my destination late at night than travel with the masses in the afternoon and evening.


There is a winter storm watch posted for a large section of the northeast for the potential for heavy snow. I am posting three maps below to give you a sense of what I expect to happen. The first map shows where the winter storm watch is posted as of 6:30 AM this morning.


The second map gives probabilities of snow greater than 4 inches. Notice the swath of very high likelihood for the snow corresponds with where the winter storm watch is posted. Later today I’ll convert these probabilities to more specific snowfall totals.


The next image shows how much snow might be on the ground by later in the afternoon Wednesday. This is based on computer modeling and therefore you should look at the overall pattern, not the exact numbers as they won’t be correct. Most of western southern New England will be plowing snow by this time.


The rain will likely change to snow, even in Boston, Wednesday evening or overnight. The amount of snow we can expect inside of Route 495 is still very much in question. I will update this afternoon with more specific numbers after I have a chance to look at more data. It is possible even Boston sees a plowable snow event, but it becomes much less likely for Cape Cod and the outer portion of Cape Ann.

Any snow ends before sunrise. Many football fields and stands will be covered by snow, but skies will partially clear in the afternoon and it will remain chilly.


Friday Through The Weekend
Dry and cold weather is expected without any problems on the roads. Temperatures will moderate for Sunday.

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