Meteorological winter began yesterday with one of the nicest days you could hope for in December. I spent the afternoon raking and mulching leaves, harvesting some carrots and turnips as well as doing a bit of pruning. As long as I can work outside, there is always something to do in the yard.
The mild weather was certainly welcome after a colder and snowier November than we typically experience. This month is shaping up to be closer to average with some forecasters and models predicting a much warmer month. One of many forecasters to follow is Joe Bastardi from WeatherBell Analytics. Even if you disagree with his climate views, he is a good meteorologist. If you like more in-depth analysis of the longer range, check out his Saturday summary from this past weekend. Click here.
There are a whole host of reasons why I think, at least the first half of this month’s temperatures, will be closer to average. Part of the reason is that the atmosphere often takes a breather after being extreme in any direction. Additionally, some of the oscillations we follow, like those in the Atlantic, are forecast to be in a phase more conducive to less cold and fewer storms
This doesn’t mean it doesn’t get cold or we don’t see snow, the prediction is just an average. Also, average in December is cold, so even if we are milder than that, it’s still going to be chilly most of the time.
Today for example, is a much colder day than yesterday with highs only in the 30s. Most of you will see temperatures nearly 30 degrees colder for most of the day as opposed to the high of 64 in Boston on Monday.
You might have noticed the clouds and a few showers late in the day Monday. That was a cold front ushering in the new air mass from Canada. Notice on the map below which shows temperatures at about 5000 feet. You can clearly a sharp demarcation where things go from cold to mild. These maps are produced by WeatherBell Analytics.
Later today the mild air is going to make a run back at New England. As the warm air returns, it will bring a period of wintry precipitation west of Route 495 and rain along the coast. This isn’t a big event, but some slick spots Wednesday morning could cause a slower than average commute from the western half of the state. This weather is actually being caused by the same front that went by yesterday only this time it’s going the opposite direction.
The warmest air will occur over southeastern Massachusetts where 60F is likely. Area north and west of Boston will still reach into the 40s, for a milder day on Wednesday. Thursday sunshine returns with more seasonable conditions. A pattern of damp and cloudy weather will likely be with us this weekend, but it’s going to be too warm for it to be in the form of snow.