Christmas Snow, January Cold- A Look At What Might Lie Ahead

There are only two weekends left before Christmas which means stores and roads around malls and other shopping venues are going to be crowded this weekend and next. Traffic would become exponentially worse if we throw a snowstorm in to the mix.
Presently, the December pattern continues to feature a break from the type of abnormally chilly air we saw last month.

November featured several outbreaks of arctic air lowering temperatures far below their 30 year averages. At the end of November many of us thought December would bring about a break in this pattern and indeed this has happened.

Snow In Our Furture
Today I want to look at the possibility of snow over the next 10 days which takes us up to a few days before Christmas Eve. Remember, the odds of a white Christmas in Boston are about 25% or 1 out of every 4 years. It increases as you move west and north. Portland, Maine has a white Christmas about every 3 out of 4 years.

white christmas chance 121414.jpg

The forecast graphics are from WeatherBell Analytics today. If you are looking for a great gift for someone who loves weather get them a subscription. It’s not an inexpensive gift, but they have some of the best maps available and you can see the European Model in its entirety.


This weekend
The first map shows high pressure to our west while the nor’easter from earlier this week finally moves far enough north to relax its grip on New England. The high will build into the region over the weekend and give us Sunday as the nicest day. Saturday isn’t bad, but I can’t take out the mention of rain or snow showers along with some breaks of sunshine. Highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s this weekend.

saturday morning121314.png

Next week
Most of next week is precipitation free. A weak system might bring a few showers to the areas late Tuesday night or Wednesday, otherwise it’s seasonably cool air and sunshine along with passing clouds. Weather won’t impact traffic next week with the small possibility of wet roads for the morning on Wednesday.


The Weekend Before Christmas

There will likely be a lot of running around on the 20th and 21st of this month with many of you getting last minute gifts, heading to parties. There has been an indication of a storm developing in the central United States in the period before Christmas for about a week. The latest maps show this storm next Saturday likely bringing snow to the Midwest, but poised to take a track south of New England. A lot can change in the next week. If you are hoping for snow that storm is the one to watch for potential change in track to impact the area with snow just before Christmas.

early saturday 122014.png

January 2015

January is our coldest and often snowiest month of the year, it’s truly winter. Even if it’s above average, it’s cold. The long-range models are starting to trend cold, but not excessively cold for next month overall. If you look at the CFS-V2 which is one of the long-range models you begin to see a trend towards a colder month for the eastern part of the country. The first image is the average of the forecasts from the past 30 days for January, the second image just takes the past few day’s forecast predictions.

january trend121314.png

Notice the evolution of a colder forecast for the east, I suspect this will continue. I’ll be updating my thoughts on the Christmas forecast and the potential January cold here and on Twitter @growingwisdom. Please follow me there.

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