Winter Storm Warning for Parts of Southern New England

Saturday is going to be a stormy day across all of southern New England with snow, sleet and rain in the forecast. Winds will also be strong in the afternoon and first part of the overnight hours. This isn’t a long lasting storm, with generally about 12 hours of precipitation.

The snow gets underway in the morning between 6 and 9 AM and will mix with and then change to rain for a period of time from about Boston southwest to Providence. North of that axis mixing will occur with generally an all snow event for northern inland areas of the region. The loop below shows one model projection of the storm through 7AM Saturday.


The length of time the mixing occurs is critical to snow totals. Two or three fewer of hours of mixing means that much more snow and the converse is also true. I’ve based my maps on a few hours of mixing and even some rain in Boston.


I’ll update any changes first on Twitter @growingwisdom late tonight and again early Saturday. Look for a new blog as well as the system unfolds.

The maps below outline snowfall totals as they are currently projected. In some storms, I am worried about track, in this storm I am worried about temperature. The atmosphere is going to be about as close as possible to a borderline rain-snow situation. In this case a difference of just one degree could mean you see 2 or 3 more inches of snow than I am projecting. While there is some risk to the downside, I am more confident the lower end of my snow ranges will be met in most spots.


As is always the case in these storms some towns will come in lower and others higher than the projected accumulation numbers, but you should be able to get a good idea for the size and scope of this storm from the maps.


This area of low pressure causing our storm tomorrow will get very strong as it moves into eastern Canada. The rapid intensification of the storm means winds will be quite strong along the coast in the afternoon. The map below gives an idea of the wind tomorrow.


Since the snow is going to be wet and heavy there is the chance for scattered power outages. The greatest likelihood of power issues is where the snow is heaviest and wet and over Cape Cod where winds could be strong enough to create some tree damage.
There are several warnings and advisories posted for the region. The winter storm warning is in effect because many towns in the warning area will reach 6 inches of snow. Remember, the warnings are for counties, so some parts of each of those counties won’t reach 6 inches.


The storm ends between 7 and 10 PM tomorrow, west to east and then it’s just mostly dry and cold thereafter. Sunday looks nice enough to clear all the snow and slush, but be sure to remove it all because it will freeze rock solid for several days after that.


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