An active weather pattern will continue into next week although today is dry, sunny and cold. If you are dressed properly, it will be an enjoyable one from the slopes to the woods to the lakes. Highs this afternoon will only be in the teens to lower 20s over Cape Code. Many areas did go below zero overnight, but Boston didn’t.
It will be generally clear overnight, but not as cold. Lows will be in the single numbers above zero and lower teens. A few of the colder spots such as Norwood and Orange will likely go under zero.
A front crosses the area Saturday and then stalls to our south. Weak to moderate weather systems will ride along the boundary between the very cold air over Maine and much milder air over the mid-Atlantic region. This means periods of snow are possible Saturday night into late Monday or early Tuesday. The timing and strength of each system will be a bit different.
In terms of accumulation I am not expecting a blockbuster storm with any one system, although if you add up the numbers it will be another sizeable storm.
Here are a few points about the accumulation for the next 4 days. First, the amounts will change as we get more information about each system. Second, the start and stop times of each event are also going to fluctuate. Finally, the areas that see the most snow during each time period will vary. Boston could see the most snow Sunday, but the area of maximum snow fall could shift north or south for Monday and Monday night.
The image below (credit:WeatherBell Analystic) shows temperatures on Monday.
I have highlighted the arctic air and the milder air. This contrast will help create a lifting mechanism to produce snow. Shifts in the boundary will in turn shift the areas of heaviest snow. Notice how mild it is over Cape Cod. This will mean some rain over that area during this long duration event.
When it’s all over a foot of snow could have fallen in some areas, but due to compaction and some sublimation (snow goes from a solid to a gas) there won’t be a foot more on the level.
This next map is for the first significant accumulation period through Sunday evening. This will need to be refined tomorrow.
These types of events are notorious for not being forecast very well. I highly recommend checking back here and on Twitter @growingwisdom because the timing and amounts of the snow is going to change.
The middle of the week will feature more cold weather, but there are growing signs of another arctic outbreak of below zero air as we head into President’s Day weekend and beyond. School vacation week will cold to start and all this snow is going to make for a memorable vacation for many.