As clouds thicken this afternoon, we are already seeing some precipitation break out across New York and Pennsylvania. As you have likely heard, there is more snow on the way.
This isn’t going to be a big storm and there are some definite differences from previous snow events this winter. One of the most notable will be temperatures. As the snow begins, it will be light and fluffy, similar to much of the snow in February. However, as milder air works northward, the snow will become stickier and a bit heavier. There may even be a brief coating of sleet or rain on top of the snow as it ends Wednesday morning.
I am expecting generally 1 to 3 inches of snow, but some areas could see 4 inches of snow, especially in pockets north and west of Boston. Over Cape Cod there will be less snow still.
The snow begins around or just after the evening commute and then ends after midnight. There will still be some slick areas of driving for the Wednesday morning commute, especially on untreated surfaces and the further north you are as temperatures will be just above freezing in those locations.
As the weather system pull north, skies will partially clear, with the most sunshine north and west of Route 495. The big story is that for the first time in 43 days it will reach 40F or higher across much of the area. This will feel like spring compared to the cold of the past month and a half and there will be some melting of the freshly fallen snow.
Areas south of Boston won’t see much sun tomorrow. Temperatures will still be mild, even without the sunshine.
Colder air comes right back into the region on Thursday with highs in the 20s commonplace. A storm will slip south of the area Thursday morning and bring clouds and a period of snow again, mostly south of the Turnpike. Some of the precipitation might even be in the form of a light rain depending on your location.
There could be several inches of snow over Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts, but less north and west of there. Boston might see just a coating or a couple of inches of snow, again this isn’t a big system.
Our weather looks rather tranquil heading into the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will slowly moderate, with a very gentle melting of the snowpack. It’s going to take many weeks to melt the snow and the slower it happens the less likely flooding is going to be an issue.
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With river ice very thick and a snowpack so deep the potential for major spring flooding remains quite high. This situation will need to be closely watched during the second half of March and the first half of April when the breakup of ice, the melting of snow and spring rain can all combine to cause major issues.
There are many years when the snow is very deep and we don’t have widespread spring flooding, it’s all about the timing of weather systems and the temperatures they bring.