Weather

Shift In Upper Wind Pattern Means A Return To More Typical Temperaturs

I’m sitting in my office with a winter hat on this morning. It’s cold in the house and while I could put the heat up further, I feel like it’s less about the actual temperature and more about the damp and raw feeling to the air this week.

Boston and much of southern New England is averaging about 3 degrees below average during the first 9 days of April. Today will likely be another below average day, the last in a series.

Snow Remains

There is still snow on the ground mostly west of Route 495 and north of Route 2. The deepest snow remains over Maine. Eastport still has over 30 inches of snow left on the ground representing nearly 8 inches of water.

snowcover 41013.png

This is all going to melt over the next couple of weeks and flooding could be an issue in parts of New England, depending on how much rain falls with the melting snow. The chart below is worth reviewing if you are interested in all sorts of snow data.

eastport maine snow water.gif

We have been very fortunate here in southern New England in that the snow did melt so slowly. While I wanted to have bare ground 2 weeks ago, I am glad to have not had a flooded basement in the process.

Shifting Pattern

Milder air is finally coming to the region and while every day won’t be in the 60s to near 70 the rest of the month, at least we are going to have a taste of real spring weather.

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The following chart, derived from the GFS model, is courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics (best maps in my opinion). This shows a milder than average period of weather followed by more typical temperatures. Of course, the further out in time we look, the higher the chances for errors in the model.

next 16 days temps 415.png

However, the overall upper wind pattern is shifting significantly from what it has been the past 12 weeks.

Monday flow 10k feet.gif

Interestingly, many times weather patterns come in 6 week intervals. Sometimes they reset themselves in a similar fashion again so you can get 12 week periods or 18 etc. This isn’t a hard and fast rule, but it’s something I keep in mind when looking at medium range forecasts.

winter cold 41415.png

This weekend will bring average to above average temperatures along with sunshine. Tomorrow will be a windy day, but this is good as it will help to dry out the ground.
Sunday is my pick of the weekend. Highs should make it into the middle 60s away from the coast with upper 50s to near 60F a general rule closer to the water.

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Monday brings more sunshine and mild air, perfect for the Red Sox to take the field in Fenway. The next chance of showers comes overnight Monday, but should exit the area in time for the morning commute on Tuesday.

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