Very warm and humid air has primed the atmosphere over western New England for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is already a severe thunderstorm watch posted for the areas in pink on the image below.
The best chance of storms will be between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. in the western half of the region. Some of these storms could hold together to bring a brief shower in the Route 495 to Route 128 belt this evening, but the majority of the area remains dry.
The lack of rain continues to be a problem, with most places averaging 50 percent below their typical rainfall. While it’s still early in the spring-to-summer period, the ground is rapidly drying.
The trend this afternoon has been for the chance of storms to shift a bit further east than was thought this morning. Even with this in mind, I don’t expect any rain east of roughly Route 128. Readings are well into the 80s as of mid to late afternoon. It’s going to be an uncomfortable night for sleeping if you don’t have air conditioning.
Tomorrow, the chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will increase over the eastern part of the region, but I wouldn’t count on much. These patterns tend to feed on themselves, and once we go into drought mode, shower patterns are tough to come by.
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If you haven’t been outside since this morning, it has become very humid as well. Our dew points have climbed well into the 60s with a few 70-degree readings showing up. This is getting into the oppressive range, which is why it feels like the middle of summer.
Sunday brings our next chance of showers. This looks like the highest risk of rain most of the area has seen this month. While it won’t be an all-day rain, it does appear most areas should see some water.
It’s hard to believe June hasn’t even arrived yet after seeing so many warm days already this early in the season. The next drought report is issued tomorrow. I don’t suspect the status of the drought has changed, but it certainly hasn’t been alleviated either.