With July 4th on Saturday, this might be your summer vacation week. If it is, you did reasonably well picking it, but if you like heat and humidity, you should have waited until sometime later in July or early August.
The last week of June and the first few days of July are typically quite summery. The sun is very strong, and we are inching our way towards the climatology peak in temperature in about three weeks. That peak is more of a plateau, lasting several weeks around the same temperature. Most areas will reach the upper 70s to mid-80s on a daily basis from late June through late July. The exceptions of course are the beaches and islands where readings are typically cooler.
Yesterday’s storms have departed the area, but cloudiness will linger today. It will be significantly warmer than yesterday. Highs this afternoon will reach the 70s, and while it’s not what many consider a beach day, I rather like these days because the sun isn’t so overwhelming.
If you do head to the beach be aware that the surf may still be kicked up a bit, and rip currents are possible, though any warnings for them are confined to Narragansett Bay, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.
Tomorrow we will see more in the way of sunshine and even warmer readings. It’s back to the upper 70s to lower 80s and with light winds, Tuesday is a pick day this week.
A frontal system brings more humidity ahead of it and also some showers and possible thunderstorms on Wednesday. This doesn’t mean a washout, and it won’t be cool.
The map below is from the NAM model, and while the model isn’t one of the better ones, I do use it for an overall picture of the weather, and it can do quite well with certain aspects of the forecast. Notice the green areas, these are areas where rain has fallen during Wednesday. There is a scattered nature to the rainfall, and it’s not very heavy.
Since there will be the chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday you could see a heavier downpour, but generally, this is a more typical rain pattern for early July.
On Thursday the front will have pushed south of the region, and the air will dry out. It’s still going to be comfortable. Since the frontal system won’t be too far away clouds will mix with the sunshine.
Friday is another nice day, but we’ll have to watch another front. This front doesn’t appear to be strong and will only usher in the chance of an isolate storm.
Presently, July 4th will be a nice day with highs around 80 degrees and a blend of clouds and sunshine. The risk of rain is low but not zero. If you are having outdoor activities or headed to Boston for the Pops Concert, it won’t be a day filled with lots of heat and humidity as we have seen in the past.
I’ll be updating the July 4th holiday forecast all week. Please follow me here and on Twitter @growingwisdom
Although we have lost a few minutes of daylight over the past eight days, the amount is negligible for most of us, and we can still enjoy the large amount of daylight early July brings.
Water temperatures are still running cool but are slowly warming into the 60s. High tide, which gets later by about an hour a day, is going to be mid to late morning the first part of the week and then end up in the mid-afternoon by the weekend.
Not matter what your plans are this week and over the holiday, I hope it’s a great one for you and your friends and family.