Two frontal systems are moving through the area this morning. The first is a warm front and this will be followed this afternoon by a cold front. The showers and storms associated with the warm front are more organized and will leave a quarter to half inch of rain in most areas. If you end up in a heavier downpour, there could be 1 or in an extreme case, 2 inches of rain in a very short period of time.
There have been severe thunderstorm warnings in parts of Connecticut this morning and this means some thunderstorms are certainly possible when this area reaches the Boston area.
The weather map below is for later today when the warm front as moved into Maine and the cold front is west of New England. The area south of a warm front and east of a cold front is often the focal point for thunderstorms.
Depending on when you read this, the rain from the warm front might already be over. The radar image below is from the HRRR model, which is a short-term high resolution model. This shows the main area of rain moving north and leaving just scattered storms and showers for this afternoon.
After the first area of showers moves by, we could see some sunny breaks this afternoon and this will only serve to heat up the atmosphere more. The second round of possible storms between 3 p.m and 8 p.m will be much more scattered in nature. Some of you won’t see any rain at all, while other areas could be put under a severe thunderstorm warning if the storms become intense enough.
After today, our weather will be dry and mainly sunny for a long stretch. I don’t expect any rain through the weekend and into the first few days of next week. For those of you on vacation, after today, conditions will be favorable for beachgoers or heading to the lake or just having a staycation at home.
Temperatures will slowly moderate with warm to very warm readings in the mid to upper 80s by early next week.