A cold front is slipping south through New England, and this will bring an end to this round of muggy weather. Although showers are in the actual forecast, most of them will miss you. The air behind the front is much drier. If the cold front was coming through later in the day and moving a bit slower I would be more concerned about showers, but the timing of the front isn’t great for shower activity north of the Massachusetts Turnpike and west of Route 95. South and east of this line showers are most likely, especially this afternoon and evening.
Notice as of 11 a.m. there is much drier air already showing up in Vermont and the rest of western New England.
While all of this is occurring, a small area of low pressure along the New Jersey coastline is moving northeast. This will interact with the frontal system and is one reason why the rain is most likely over Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts.
The radar loop below predicts how the shower activity will evolve through this afternoon. Notice the line of showers moves south and east and then seems to blossom further as it reaches Plymouth County and points south.
If you do see showers this afternoon and evening they could contain torrential rain and some gusty winds if thunder develops. The risk of storms will decrease throughout the evening and set us up for a pair of stellar mid-summer days tomorrow and Friday.
I think the balance of the weekend weather will be good, but the weekend forecast isn’t without questions. A few things are sure. Humidity levels will be increasing this weekend, and it’s going to feel muggy again. With the additional moisture, there is the possibility of a period of showers or thunderstorms in New England, but presently the risk seems to be highest over western New England, Berkshires, Vermont, etc. and not the coastal plain. While Thursday and Friday will be cooler than average, the trend will be for warmer temperatures this weekend and early next week. I don’t see any 90 degree readings on the horizon.
This is one of those weekends where the forecast might sound worse than the actual weather. When you hear the words showers and thunderstorms, remind yourself these are just chances, and the odds of your favorite spot not getting wet are higher than of seeing any rain.
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees at the coastline, but they will turn warmer inland reaching the lower and middle 80s by Sunday.