Warm and humid with some additional storms this afternoon

Severe weather rumbled through much of southeastern Massachusetts and parts of Rhode Island this morning, including Providence, Cranston and Barrington. As I write this any damage from these storms is still coming in, and it does look notable in places. The storms also brought torrential rain and left well over an inch of rain in a very short period of time.

The meteorological set-up today is a cold front back to the west. This frontal system divides the humid air over eastern New England with drier air behind the front. The slow movement of the front means more showers and storms can pop up this afternoon.

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I often look at the short-range model for a trend in what’s coming up for the day. The loop below shows more storms popping up this afternoon, but the coverage of them is not extensive, rather they are scattered about. Scattered storms mean some of you could see torrential rain, frequent lightning and possible hail, but most of you will miss severe weather altogether. The loop below shows storms will pop later today, but notice how scattered they are.

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We have to mention all the possibilities in spite of the risk being relatively small. The map below was issued by the branch of the National Weather Service charged with forecasting severe weather. The yellow area is in the highest risk for severe storms today, but even this area is relatively small.

This doesn’t mean the chances are nil, as a matter of fact, a slight chance is still high enough to warrant mention. But perspective is also important and the likelihood of severe weather was greater with the morning line that went through southeastern New England than it will be this afternoon.

The frontal area doesn’t neatly clear the region, so even tomorrow we still have the chance for some thunderstorms or just showers. Again, most of this would occur in the afternoon. Both today and tomorrow do have some periods of sunshine before and after any storminess.

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Thursday is looking like a great vacation day with sunshine, warm temperatures and low humidity. It’s the kind of day you’ll want to be outside enjoying.

There are still questions about Friday and Saturday in terms of clouds and possible rain. The models appear to be backing off on the rain chances, but I can’t rule it out entirely. This is similar to a winter situation where the models are forecasting different tracks and until we start seeing a bit more agreement I can’t rule in our out a wet period Friday night and Saturday.

The map below is for Saturday morning. The low pressure system is south of the area and if it stays south we’ll have more clouds and little or no rain. What is clear is it won’t be hot this weekend. As a matter of fact most of the time will be cooler than average, not cool per se, but in the 70s during the day and comfortable at night for sleeping.

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Notice dew points are much lower this weekend, making for a more comfortable feel to the air.

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We will warm up again to the 80s next week. In spite of seven 90 degree days this year, we haven’t been able to string together three of them for an official heat wave.

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