If you have been hoping for cooler, fall-like weather, you are going to have to wait quite a bit longer. It will be a while before a fall pattern shows up here in New England.
There have been ten 90-degree days this year at Logan Airport, and today will perhaps make 11. If we do reach 90 degrees, it won’t get much higher. I expect this will occur around 2 or 3 p.m. before temperatures cool off this evening.
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It will be a dry day, with almost 100 percent of the possible sunshine available. In terms of humidity, you will notice it, but dew points won’t rise into the oppressive range, and will stay rather moderate. This makes it feel a bit warmer than the actual air temperature, but our heat indices won’t become advisory-worthy.
Tomorrow, a cold front will push southward from northern New England. Notice on the weather map there is a blue line, the cold front, up over Maine. This front marks the dividing line between the warm and humid air and the cooler dry air we will enjoy for Friday and Saturday.
Another way to look at the upcoming changes in the weather is using a meteogram. The chart below shows temperature, dew point, wind and the chance of rain. You can see a small spike in the opportunity for showers Thursday as the front passes the region.
Notice dew points are in the upper 60s, becoming uncomfortable for a while tomorrow. Then the dew points fall dramatically into the 50s on Friday, which will feel refreshingly dry. Friday and Saturday will be much cooler than we have seen in a while, and will bring very dry air. It will feel crisp on Saturday morning.
Brief Break In The Heat
While Saturday will feature pleasantly warm readings well into the 70s, which is about average for early September, we will see high temperatures return into the 80s for Sunday.
As the holiday weekend progresses, it will turn warmer and more humid with highs reaching near 90 again by Labor Day. Next week will continue warm to hot—at least for the first part of the week.
No True Break In Sight
The longer range forecasts are also keeping the humidity on the high side the second half of next week which will, if it occurs, make being in school rather uncomfortable.
The weather pattern continues to be dominated by a large area of high pressure of the southeast coast of the United States. This high, known as the Bermuda high, typically reaches its peak dominance in July and August, but can linger well into September in some years.
The CFS V2 model, which I often look at for ideas on the coming weeks, continues to keep the eastern half of the United States well above average for the rest of the month. This doesn’t mean there won’t be a cool morning or two during this time, but it is very likely that the entire month will feature generally warm days, humidity and a lack of rainfall.
The absence of rain is going to become more noticeable in the upcoming week with dry cool air followed by dry hot air. If you have new plantings, it’s a good idea to continue to water them thoroughly at least once a week during these dry, drought-like conditions.