Weekend forecast begins with a look at Draconid meteors and where is Joaquin now?

Lots of various things to chat about in today’s blog. I’ll cover several topics an inch deep rather than a mile thick as I sometimes do.

The forecast is quite straightforward without a lot of room for things to go wrong over the next 5 days. Today is sunny and cooler than yesterday, but still a nice afternoon. Tomorrow will bring some shower activity. It’s not going to rain the entire day. The map below gives an idea of how much rain could fall. These numbers represent the middle of a range add or subtract about a 10th of an inch for the higher and lower ends.

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The weekend is going to be sunny from southern Connecticut to central Maine. There will be some clouds across northern Maine Saturday and Sunday, but no rain. Saturday is the coolest of the three days with highs nearing 60 degrees over southern New England, but staying in the 50s to the north.

A warming trend ensures Sunday and Monday are ideal fall days where once again the sunshine will be the dominate player. It won’t matter where you are in New England this weekend, it’s going to be ideal for Columbus Day weekend. Highs on Monday make a run at 70 degrees for many of you.

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What Happens To Hurricanes As They Die?
While hurricane Joaquin never directly impacted the United States, it did of course help exacerbate the flow of moisture into South Carolina. When a hurricane does hit land they will quickly become just a rainmaker, but what happens when they curve out over the Atlantic and head towards Europe? Sometimes these storms die in the Atlantic, but they can make all the way over and bring rain and wind anywhere from Ireland to Spain. While no longer a tropical system, what was Joaquin is likely to continue east and finally southeast to perhaps impact Spain and Portugal. The map below from last evening shows the final track of the storm as forecast by the National Hurricane Center.

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ECMWF versus GFS

For the past several years meteorologists have explained to the public the various differences between the computer models we use. From nor’easters to Sandy to Hurricane Joaquin, the models are often at odds with one another.

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The clear winner most of the time is the European Center’s For Meteorological Weather Forecasting’s Model or simply the GFS. Ryan Maue PhD, from WeatherBell Analytics produces a chart which shows the accuracy of the two models on their respective 5 days forecasts. Statistics show what nearly all forecasters already know, while not always the case, the Euro is constantly better.

Another Stellar Show
There’s a meteor shower tonight and unlike most of these meteor showers where you have to stay up late, this one is best viewed in the evening. This is a notoriously unpredictable event, but it’s certainly worth a look. Just get yourself somewhere away from city lights and allow your eyes to adjust. Look up and then towards the northwest, (right of sunset). The image below from Sky and Telescope gives a good idea where to look.

I’d love to hear from you on Twitter @growingwisdom. You can find more garden and weather information on my feed as well.

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If you are a morning person be sure to check out Venus in the eastern sky before sunrise. You can’t miss it as it’s the last object, besides the moon, to disappear in the morning sky.

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