Some towns are over 20 degrees milder this morning than they were yesterday morning. That is an incredible 24 hour turn around and illustrates just how fast the weather can change in New England.
You can thank a southwesterly flow of milder air for the frostless morning. Temperatures leveled off around 8 p.m last evening and have been rising ever since. You can get temperatures to rise during the night in spite of no sun.
The process of moving one air mass into another is called advection and warm air advection can be very powerful. I’ve seen temperatures rise over 30 degrees in the dark as southerly winds propel tropical air northward.
There is a wind advisory posted for Cape Cod due to the strong winds today. A wind advisory is less severe than a high wind warning, but wind gust can still reach around 40 miles per hour and scattered tree limbs and branches can create limited power outages in these situations.
Sunshine will be most abundant south of the Mass Turnpike where it will also be the mildest. Interior areas from Framingham south to Norwood and into Providence will be the mildest. Where the winds come off the ocean, temperatures will hover in the lower 60s.
If you are headed into northern New England there may be some showers this morning, but it will be dry this afternoon.
A nearby boundary of air masses tomorrow will keep the clouds in the area and things a bit cooler along the coast. I don’t expect Boston hit 60, but just away from the coastline and especially the southwestern suburbs should.
A bit more humidity and a temperature near 70 degrees on Thursday will be a real treat. Unfortunately, I don’t expect a lot of sunshine to go along with these milder temperatures.
Cooler temperatures return for the weekend, but with the exception of a few of the colder spots Saturday morning frosty conditions won’t be seen. Some clouds will increase Sunday making Saturday the brighter of the two weekend days.
Dry, Dry, Dry
The next 10 days continues to be very dry. Presently I don’t foresee any significant rain for the foreseeable future. If I look at the long-range charts there is some hint of a changing pattern with more rain in the closing days of October or early in November. It would be quite typical for this dry pattern to break as we close out the 10th month.
The upper wind pattern is forecast to remain progressive through the end of the month, but configured in such a way warmer than average conditions will be more prevalent. This means yesterday’s cold air could be the coldest air we see for the rest of October!
Early Cold Doesn’t Mean Bad Winter
If you are wondering if there is any correlation between early cold and a cold and snowy winter, the answer is no. As a matter of fact, you can find anecdotal evidence of just the opposite here in New England. Back in 1979, when there was cold and snow early in October, the rest of the winter ended up as one of the mildest on record. In some parts of New England that year remains the benchmark for the least amount of snow recorded.