Welcome to November. If you are still shell shocked from last winter and fearful of an early start to the winter this year, let me put your mind at ease. Overall, this month and likely the first part of December will feature above normal temperatures. If you have been following me on Twitter as well as here, you know the warm November has been in the forecast for several weeks.
Precipitation is a bit harder to forecast, but in the short-term, we are still in a very dry pattern. Before I delve into a longer look at the upcoming months, let me quickly tell you this week looks absolutely ideal for early November.
Unless you are a skier who was hoping for an early cold snap, the lack of a November chill this week should please you. This kind of pattern saves on heating costs and makes the 5 p.m. darkness a bit easier to take.
Beyond this week, the weather turns colder late in the weekend, but this doesn’t look to last very long. If you are wondering, average highs should be in the 52-60 degree range in most years. If we are into the 60s, it’s warm for early November and if we stay in the 40s it’s cold.
As you know there are many computer model forecasts we all use to evaluate the upcoming weather. The Canadian model doesn’t get as much air time as the GFS and Euro, but it’s still a formidable model and worth a look. The latest run the long-range outlook is out and it concurs with the thinking of many other forecasters and models.
All of these long-range forecasts are based on probability and averages. This doesn’t mean an above average month of temperature can’t have a week of cold or a dry month can’t see a major storm. If it snowed 20 inches in January and that’s all the precipitation we received it would be a month with less moisture than average, but certainly a snowy month. The point it numbers don’t always tell the entire story.
The atmosphere has a typical state at any given time of the year. By evaluating how the atmosphere compares to average we can get an idea of what the weather will be like across the country in a given month.
Canadian Model Review As Of November 1st 2015
Image Courtesy Tropical Tidbits
For December, the predicted average pattern has a trough further south and west than is typically the case. This is forecast to bring the coldest air across the west and leave New England warmer than average.
The map below shows the average upper pattern for January. The flow typically brings cold air from Canada south and east. If the pattern is further west, then the coldest air might not make it into New England, rather it would be shunted south before it gets here.
The temperatures forecast according to the Canadian models leaves New England on the edge of the coldest air. If this forecast holds, January would see some thawing throughout the month.
February has many forecasters thinking much above average cold and snow, but the Canadian model has mixed messages, forecasting a month with a lack of deep cold, but likely stormy with average snow. After last February, if we did receive only a foot of snow in February, it would be quite welcome by many of you.
Of course February is three months away and this forecast will be updated several times by then. It is going to be interesting to see how the trends unfold. El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden-Julian Oscillation all will be interacting to create our upcoming winter pattern. An unforeseen shift in one or more of these can throw off everyone’s long-range forecast.