Near record warmth for a couple of days, cooler this weekend

There are several interesting weather notes to discuss today — the most noticeable of which is the warmth. Temperatures this time of year are more typically in the upper 20s and lower 30s at night, and reach into the 50s to near 60 degrees in the afternoon.

Last night, most areas hovered in the lower 50s and today’s high temperatures will reach the lower 70s in many locations. It will be cooler over Cape Cod where clouds and some fog have been the general rule early today.

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More Moisture In The Air
During the fall and winter the amount of moisture in the air decreases. During the warmer months, the air has the ability to “hold” more moisture. This is one of the reasons we say it feels like spring or summer some mornings. It’s less about the temperature when it comes to the feeling of the air and more around moisture.

Today dew points are in the 50s. It’s one of the reasons it felt like spring this morning and why it’s going to be another very warm night ahead for November. The record highs are in the lower 70s and we do have an outside chance of getting very close to these, especially Friday. Today will feature the most sunshine.

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Brief Cooldown
Over the weekend a cooler, drier air mass heads back into New England. The upcoming weekend chill won’t be very intense. Monday morning a lot of us will be back into the 30s and while these temperatures are worthy of putting the heat on, it’s very typical.


Late next week, a storm will head to our west into the Great Lakes and eventually Canada. A storm track like this propels warm air northward along the east coast, and it’s likely 60 degrees or better Wednesday afternoon.

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El Nino
El Nino continues to be the primary, but not only player in the fall weather. Looking further out into the future a storm may bring copious amount of rain to the southern states during the middle of November. The exact placement of the storm track this fall often helps predict what can happen later in the winter.

The image below shows a typical El Nino storm track. As I wrote, while this is the major player in the weather this winter, it’s not the only one. As storms come across the Pacific and then follow this track, if and how they turn up along the Atlantic seaboard is critical to our precipitation this winter.

typical el nino patterns.jpg

Many years with strong El Nino presence result in the larger storms missing southern and northern New England while places from New York to Richmond, Virginia see higher snowfall than is typical for that part of the country.

Snow Coverage Different
Some of you have heard this winter is going to be as bad as last year. This isn’t what I believe, nor is what the atmosphere is indicating at this point. We just aren’t seeing the same set-up as we did a year ago. One small data point to leave you with this morning is snow cover. The two maps below show snow cover as of this morning.

snow 1511.png
snow 121114.png

Note how much less snow is to our north. Snow helps build cold air, lack of snow helps keep the air more modified. It will be interesting to see how the coverage continues we head into the final days of this month and set us up for December.

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