More showers for the evening commute, the mild month continues and more data on the upcoming winter

It’s dry again this morning and it’s going to remain dry for much of the daylight hours. However, there is already an area of rain and thicker clouds back to the west of New England and this is steadily moving in our direction.

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Although it was wet yesterday for the commutes, the volume of traffic was lower due to Veterans Day. This afternoon’s commute will likely turn out much slower than average, this of course is already slow. My neighbor who commutes from metro west to MIT daily told me he’s seen about a minute a year added to his average commute. This seems about right to me. When I moved out here 18 years ago things weren’t nearly as slow on a daily basis as they are now. Add in any form of weather, and things tend to get bad fast.


The showers won’t be very heavy this evening, maybe amounting to about half of yesterday’s rain. I expect any rain to be over by mid-evening and then skies clear.
Behind this weather system it turns dry and initially chilly. The weekend will be good for raking leaves and all the other fall activities, but it will be cold early.

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After the weekend another warming trend ensues with temperatures rising to above average levels. This pattern of alternating cool and warm should last up to and perhaps beyond Thanksgiving.

December likely starts overall warm, but how long this lasts will be open to interpretation. The American models continue to insist the warmer than average conditions continue through the winter, while the other global models have a much colder, but not as cold as last year, look to them. Below is the Chinese model through the third week of December. Notice the warmer than average temperatures in the east.

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Models From Around The World
There are a lot of models available. Figuring out the winter isn’t simply noticing it’s warmer or colder than average. Remember, a warmer than average January can still be cold and a drier than average winter can still be very snowy. The model below if from the Japanese for the December through February period.

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If areas in Canada are 10 or 15 degrees above average, temperatures can still be well below zero! That air then comes into New England and while not as cold as last February, still it won’t be warm.

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El Nino continues to exist and will impact the weather for at least the first two-thirds of meteorological winter which runs December to February. El Nino will likely weaken during the winter. The graph below show the trend to return to average ocean temperatures grows as we head into the spring.

el nino charsdf 21.png

Typical years with strong El Nino conditions result in a known shift in the jet stream. However, the subtle differences can create an enormous impact in New England and around the globe. The position of the trough (L) off the west coast is critical in determining what happens downstream. Additionally, the interaction between the southern jet stream and the northern or polar jet stream will ultimately lead to a stormy winter or a more tranquil one.

el nino postionsdf 21da.png

Very Different November
While November isn’t even half over, I can say with confidence this is going to end up a very warm month. Even if the second half of the month is colder, it will be very difficult to overturn the warm anomaly we are seeing. Check out how much colder it was during November 2014.

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novembe2015 234.png

This is a huge turnaround from last year when November ran much colder than average and even produced a white Thanksgiving. The winter of 2015-2016 isn’t officially underway, but most indications continue to point to a winter with fewer cold outbreaks and less snow by far than the previous one.

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