Noticeable cold outbreak on the way, but is it a pattern change?

Happy 2016! How are you feeling about the upcoming 10 weeks of weather? Are you dreading a repeat of last year or perhaps thinking the winter might not be so terrible? We haven?t had day with temperatures below normal in over a month, but that?s about to change, at least for a short time.

The next 4 weeks is typically the core of winter cold. If you look strictly at averages, the bottom of the cold curve occurs around January 18th and then slowly turns around. Every winter is different. Sometimes the coldest temperature of winter occurs early in January, other years it occurs in February. It?s similar to July and August, July is the warmer month on average, but August has brought some of the hottest record temperatures in the books.

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Last year the coldest temperature in January in Boston was one below, but the following month bested that when Logan Airport reached 3 below zero. What?s interesting is in spite of January having the lowest average temperatures, many New England cities have recorded their coldest month in February and their all-time lowest temperatures in February.


This week, we have two days of cold with the average temperature falling below normal. I suspect you?ll hear phrases like ?bitter blast?, ?frigid temperatures?, and ?icy wind? as if it?s unusual. The fact is, what?s unusual is that we haven?t seen any deep cold this winter and the upcoming chill isn?t going to last. You will need the winter coat early this week and the furnace will get a bit of a workout, but it?s nothing remotely out of the ordinary.


What?s more, a possible coastal storm around the 10th is appearing to be too warm for snow in most areas. While this could change, it?s likely partially related to the strong El Nino still present

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When Will Winter Really Kick In?
There?s a bit of a debate within the meteorological community this winter%2