Here’s David Epstein’s forecast for Tuesday’s snowstorm

"By the time 3 or 4 p.m. rolls around, the snow will be coming down hard."

Boston, MA - 02/12/19 - An intrepid cyclist crosses the David Ortiz Bridge in Kenmore Square on a chilly day before the coming storm hits.  (Lane Turner/Globe Staff) Reporter:  (in caps)  Topic: ()
An cyclist near Kenmore Square on Tuesday morning. –Lane Turner / The Boston Globe

Tuesday’s snowstorm is set to have a disproportionate impact compared to its final accumulation. The fact that we haven’t had much snow yet this year will compound with the timing of the storm — during the evening commute — to needle locals more than the usual winter affair.

Clouds will thicken during the morning hours Tuesday with temperatures in the teens and 20s rising into the upper 20s to freezing. The snow will move from southwestern Connecticut into the Worcester area around 1 p.m. and then move into Boston within the next hour. By the time 3 or 4 p.m. rolls around, the snow will be coming down hard, at rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. When commuters get to the roads around 5 p.m., there will already be several inches of snow on the ground and it will be coming down quite hard.

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via GIPHY

Snow arrives from the southwest later this afternoon and becomes steady and heavy just before the core of the evening commute. (WeatherBell)

Any time a storm moves in during the day while people are working, the roads on the way home become a nightmare. If you don’t like driving in traffic, I would try to be leaving by 1 p.m., but, if you have to stay at work, staying later until the roads clear might be the way to go.

The snow will start mixing with, and changing over to, sleet and freezing rain between 7 and 10 p.m. this evening. Unlike our messy storm in January, there will not be a flash freeze after this system, so if you don’t have a chance to clean up you’re not going to have to deal with ice chunks tomorrow.

Sleet as noted in orange will be moving into much of southern New England later Tuesday.

Temperatures Tuesday night will actually start going up. By Wednesday morning, the readings will be above freezing, though any showers will end early, leaving us with lots of clouds and plenty of melting and temperatures in the low to mid-40s.

I don’t expect much in the way of wind with this particular storm, although a westerly wind on Wednesday will be a bit gusty.

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Thursday is Valentine’s Day and it actually looks quite nice, with temperatures in the low 40s and plenty of sunshine. It will be a chilly morning to start — a great time to have someone make you breakfast in bed. Temperatures won’t be that cold Thursday evening, however, so if you’re headed out to dinner it will be seasonably chilly, but not excessively so. The snow banks will have shrunk a lot by then, and they’ll continue to disappear into the weekend.

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