Forecasters predict what this summer’s weather has in store for New England

“Summer's final month could bring heat and humidity to much of the East Coast," according to The Weather Channel.

Carson Beach in South Boston.
Carson Beach in South Boston. –David L. Ryan / The Boston Globe file

June’s longer days and sunshine are just the starting point of the warmest time of year in New England. In fact, forecasters predict this summer should be hotter than average across the region, though they’re are at odds over just how much precipitation is in store. 

Here’s what meteorologists think this summer’s weather will be like in New England: 

National Weather Service

In a three-month outlook for July through September, the National Weather Services predicts all of Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire, and southern Vermont have a 40 percent chance of seeing temperatures above normal. Temperatures across the northern half of Vermont, northern and central New Hampshire, and Maine have a 50 percent chance of reaching temperatures above normal.

Temperature predictions —National Weather Service
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As for precipitation, the service predicts that New England — like the entire East Coast — has equal chances of seeing normal, above normal, or below normal totals from July through September.

Precipitation predictions —National Weather Service

Meteorologist David Epstein

David Epstein predicts this summer will be humid, especially in late July and early August. He also noted that ocean temperatures are trending cooler than last year, which could mean “more sea breezes this summer if they remain.”

“Drought is less likely due to adequate rainfall this spring,” he said in his summer 2019 outlook. “We will have some dry weeks ahead, but I don’t foresee a repeat of the summer of 2015 or 2016 when rainfall was scarce.”

Epstein said it’s not clear how hurricane season could affect the region, but he reminded that all it takes is one hurricane to have a major impact.

Eric Fisher, WBZ meteorologist

Fisher said he doesn’t typically do a summer outlook since most are “so similar,” but he said via email that chances are this summer will be “warmer than average.”

“We’ll also be watching to see how the soaking winter/spring across the middle of the country affects things,” Fisher said. “Tons of extra moisture and standing water may breed more humidity that could be sent in our direction.”

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Fisher doesn’t think this summer will have as many days with 90-degree temperatures as in 2018 when there were over two dozen.

Cindy Fitzgibbon, WCVB meteorologist

While Cindy Fitzgibbon said she typically forecasts short-term, she thinks this summer will be warm and wet.

Part of the reason for that is because it’s been so wet this spring,” Fitzgibbon said. “Basically what that does [is] there’s a lot of moisture on the ground and unless we suddenly dry out, that moisture is just going to act to create thunderstorms.”

The moisture from the ground feeds the moisture needed for thunderstorms, according to Fitzgibbon.

“So when you have warm air and you have a moisture source, it starts to rise and you can get showers and thunderstorms, but those are typical things that don’t last an entire day,” she said. “You need the warmth to generate those, so we’ll have that. It doesn’t look like the summer where it’s going to be hot day after day after day. It may be similar to last summer in the sense that there’s some mugginess around.”

AccuWeather

“Summer is going to make its entrance right off the bat,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range meteorologist. “We’re going to have some back-and-forth weather in June, but that will get more consistent in July.”

An outlook map from the company predicts “very warm, drier” conditions for New England.

“For the I-95 corridor, it’s going to be a much better summer than we saw last year, weather-wise,” Pastelok said. “I think we’ll notice a lot of vacation traffic as the warmer weather brings people out to the beaches.”

The Weather Channel

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The Weather Channel predicts “hotter than average” temperatures along the East Coast, including all of New England, due, in part, to El Niño

Weather Channel forecasters expect July to heat up with above average-temperatures for all of New England. The same goes for August.

“Summer’s final month could bring heat and humidity to much of the East Coast,” the company said.