Thanksgiving may bring rain, but above average temperatures also likely

Here's David Epstein's forecast for Thanksgiving.

Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s for a chilly day.

Temperatures rose overnight Sunday, and it will be a very mild Monday morning across southern New England. We will also have a line of showers and even a couple of embedded thunderstorms to push through the area on Monday. All of this is associated with a frontal system. This is our first batch of rain this week. Unfortunately, batch No. 2 is going to come on Thanksgiving.

Before I get to the Thanksgiving forecast, let’s talk about the next couple of days. After the showers, Monday temperatures will fall and skies may clear before the sun sets, especially west of Boston. The warmest part of the day happens Monday morning. It will be noticeably colder Monday night and Tuesday with temperatures holding around 40 degrees in the afternoon.


It’s dry for Wednesday, and although traveling will be much more limited than usual, there won’t be any weather issues for folks on the roads. This will also be the case if you have students returning from any colleges.

Another weather system approaches the area quite quickly on Thursday. If you were thinking about having Thanksgiving outside, it’s going to be tough to stay dry.

The timing of the weather system on Thanksgiving looks as though rain will move into the area during the early morning hours and last as showers throughout the day. We still have a few more days to refine the forecast, and what remains to be determined is whether the rain is a general rainfall or more showery in nature, as well as how mild is it by the time most people are eating.


I feel quite confident that temperatures are going to be above average — it’s just a matter of how much above average. This means it’s likely that you’ll be able to keep windows open for good air circulation, which can help quell the transmission of the virus.

If Thursday’s weather system is a little more amplified, we would see a steadier rain and it won’t be quite as warm, but still not so cold that it will be uncomfortable to be outside under a tent or something like that. I think it’s not likely we miss the rain completely, so plan accordingly. That said, I do think the later in the day you eat, the higher the likelihood it will be much milder than average and you have a better chance of the rain having ended.


The rest of the upcoming weekend looks dry and seasonable. Whatever your Thanksgiving plans, just be as safe as possible. Hopefully, we can celebrate in a more traditional manner in 2021 and the weather will cooperate.

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