Weather

Here’s David Epstein’s Tropical Storm Elsa forecast

The track of Elsa will take it over southeastern Massachusetts Friday midday. NOAA


Tropical storm warnings continue to be posted through at least the first half of Friday for southeastern New England, and there’s also a flood watch up for everywhere except Cape Cod and the Islands. The rains of Elsa will arrive today and quickly exit the area for the afternoon. Winds will also pick up Friday morning, peak in the afternoon, and pull back during the evening.

Last night’s rain showers were not related to Elsa but were caused by the warm and humid air intersecting with the relatively comfortable air that started Thursday.

The rain later this morning is going to be the big story.

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Rainfall rates will be such that there is likely to be some street flooding as well as the potential for small stream flooding. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few flash flood warnings issued during the first part of Friday.

Some models have over 3 inches of rainfall from today’s storm. – WEATHERBELL

If you have issues in your basement during very heavy rain, it’s probably a good idea to check a sump pump or do what you would normally do in these situations to protect any possessions you might want to protect from water seeping into your home.

Winds will be strongest to the right side of the track of the storm, and that appears to be centered over Cape Cod and the Islands. Most of the wind will occur from roughly 11 a.m. till 7 p.m., and during that time, we could see a few gusts over 60 mph, especially over Nantucket. Most areas on the Cape and the rest of Southeastern Mass. will see winds between 40 and 60 mph.

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The strongest wind will occur mid-morning Friday. Cape Cod will see the heaviest winds. – WEATHERBELL

The amount of tree damage is likely to be a little greater than we would see with the same wind speeds in the middle of winter because you have all the leaves on the trees and these can act as little sails, pulling down more branches and even entire trees thus leading to power outages.

Coastal flooding won’t be an issue. While there could be some big waves and even some minor beach erosion, flooding isn’t a concern from this storm.

The rain will shut off pretty quickly in the afternoon, leaving us with less wind, moderate humidity, and warm temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Power crews should have an opportunity to restore areas without prolonged complications from additional rain and thunderstorms.

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Right now Saturday looks to be partly sunny with a few scattered early morning and late afternoon showers, and temperatures in the upper 70s. My pick of the weekend is Sunday. That day looks to have at least partial sunshine but still the risk of a shower, and highs up near 80. There is not any major heat in sight for now, although it warms up next week.

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